Poll Position…

Here we are…just about two weeks away from Election Day. We’ve been treated to a lot of information since the last Presidential Debate telling us how both candidates are in a dead heat. Since Friday afternoon, however, the polling data has been just a little more interesting.
It started Friday afternoon (after 5:00 pm ET) when the daily Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll started to show a Bush lead:

Well, I didn’t get excited initially. I mean, I’ve seen this particular poll show different things in the past three weeks. I didn’t get excited until I saw the next poll.

Now, Zogby is and has been widely regarded over the years as the most accurate pollster when it comes to how the popular vote is going to go. While the numbers are not overwhelming, these two polls show a trend that continued over the weekend.

See what I mean about the trend? That’s not the best of it, though. I was online this afternoon looking at the news and I saw the following headline on the Drudge Report: “CNNUSATODAYGALLUP: BUSH OVER KERRY BY 8…” In looking at the poll data, I couldn’t believe my eyes. What Drudge was reporting was true:

Eight points! That’s not a misprint. Now you’d think that CNN would be reporting this as the largest margin in polling by any organization so far, right? Especially since it’s their poll, at least in part. Nope. The headline on CNN.com as of Sunday afternoon read “Poll: Presidential race still tight.”
CNN doesn’t even want to admit that their poll shows John Kerry behind by almost ten points, so how do they spin it? Well, to start with, they don’t mention the results until the SIXTH PARAGRAPH of the story. I’m no journalist or reporter, but I’m thinking that the significant news in your story should lead the report. It shouldn’t be buried in the sixth paragraph in. In fact, look at the way they spin the very first paragraph to this story:

Although Americans think Sen. John Kerry did the best job in the debates, the Democratic nominee appears to have lost some ground to President Bush in the popularity contest, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday.

Lost some ground? Considering how much of a “dead heat” this contest has been for months, this isn’t just a case of Kerry having “lost some ground.” It’s a significant development that their poll clearly shows.
Oh, by the way, this same poll gave a one point edge to John Kerry just one week ago. This shows a nine point swing for Kerry in seven days. CNN isn’t reporting that either, are they? You see, friends, bias in the media isn’t just about CBS using fake documents in a major story or ABC’s Political Director writing a memo stating “We have a responsibility to hold both sides accountable to the public interest, but that doesn’t mean we reflexively and artificially hold both sides ‘equally’ accountable when the facts don’t warrant that.”
Bias is also the way or manner in which a story is reported, and CNN is clearly spinning their own poll results to make them seem less damaging to Kerry.
The fact is, these polls themselves are not key–especially since we know that someone can win the popular vote and lose the election. What is key in these polls isn’t necessarily the results, but the trend. We all know anything can happen in two weeks. We all know the polling data isn’t necessarily going to be the way it turns out.
We also know that the trend is impossible to ignore and it has continually improved over the weekend. I like these numbers and this data. I’m still nervous, though.
If you’re looking for good polling data in one place, then I highly recommend Real Clear Politics. They have a great Bush vs. Kerry head-to-head section, a Battleground State section and an Electoral College map projecting how things look right now.
These next two weeks are just going to crawl by, aren’t they?
William Smith
ConservativeBlogger.com