In order to provide some accurate perspective on last night’s Presidential Debate, it’s necessary to travel back in the “Wayback Machine” to a different time and place.
Return with me now to those days gone by. It is 1992 and the place is Little Rock, Arkansas. It is the first Tuesday in November–Election Day–and the very last daily meeting of the Clinton campaign staff is being led by George Stephanopoulos, James Carville and Paul Begala.
While recalling the campaign and preparing for the returns to come in, Stephanopoulos directs the collective thanks of the campaign staff to the “Ragin’ Cajun,” James Carville. In tribute, they review Carville’s “haiku-like” campaign strategy:
“More of the Same.
It’s the Economy, Stupid,
and Don’t Forget Healthcare.”
This somewhat over-simplified strategy was the catalyst to propel Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton to
the White House and was documented in the 1993 documentary, “The War Room,” which I watched the other night for the first time.
I rented the disc because I wanted to understand the new ideological shift to the John Kerry campaign. If you haven’t already noticed, he has almost completely distanced himself from his Vietnam service–and that was all he talked about for nearly a year. While Carville and Begala don’t admit they’re running the campaign, it is blatantly obvious that their influence is all over the playbook since September:
“I have a plan. I have a plan to lower the cost of health care for you. I have a plan to cover all children. I have a plan to let you buy into the same health care senators and congressmen give themselves.” ~ John Kerry, October 8, 2004
“Let me address it but also talk about the weapons the president just talked about, because every part of the president’s answer just now promises you more of the same over the next four years.” ~ John Kerry, October 8, 2004
“Now, the president has presided over an economy where we’ve lost 1.6 million jobs. The first president in 72 years to lose jobs. I have a plan to put people back to work. That’s not wishy-washy.” ~ John Kerry, October 8, 2004
Notice that all three of those quotes are from last night’s debate. Kerry’s been hitting the same message ever since the last shake up to his campaign staff. Why? Because these are issues that history tells us the Democrats can use to gain an advantage every single time. So, why drag these issues out of the Clinton book? Because history also tells us that the Democrats are perceived as being soft on national security.
John Kerry had to stop talking about his national security policies because they were sinking his numbers in the eighteen battleground states. People across the nation have the (correct) perception that George W. Bush is a stronger leader when it comes to defending and protecting the United States, so Kerry had to put the race back on his own turf.
Actually, to be more precise, Carville and Begala did it for him.
So last night, John Kerry figured he’d have an advantage on two fronts:
He was wrong on both counts.
OK, it’s no secret. George W. Bush had a dreadful performance in the first debate. He looked frustrated and annoyed. His tone was defensive and he often took awkward pauses while he searched for words. Kerry notched a decisive victory in the first debate and I’ve no problem admitting it. In preparing for the second debate, Bush knew he had to come in and let Kerry have it with both barrels for the whole ninety minutes, and he did just that. The President succeeded in turning the tables on Kerry, putting him on the defensive many times in the Town Meeting Debate. That particular format is one that Bush has always done well in, primarily because he isn’t restricted behind a podium.
Kerry either dismissed all of this or took his own performance for granted. Either way, many network talking heads and media pundits gave a clear victory to Bush in the immediate post-debate analysis, and rightfully so. Clearly, a different George W. Bush was on that stage in St. Louis.
After the debate, I surfed between NBC, FOX and ABC to hear some different points of view in the post-mortem. While several thought the debate was a draw, many thought that Bush gave a much improved performance, including NBC’s Tim Russert.
Now, both candidates clearly had their exaggerations and overstatements. Bush forgot he owned part of a timber company. Kerry said that the President had under funded No Child Left Behind by $28 billion when that was an opinion and not fact. Kerry also said that Gen. Shinseki had been forced to retire, which was untrue. (The general had announced his intent to retire a year before his 2003 testimony before the House Budget Committee.) Bush also inflated claims on the prescription discount card for seniors and on tort reform costs.
What is important to analyze separately, however, is the jobs numbers that Kerry kept throwing out. The following analysis is from FactCheck.org:
Kerry: Now, the president has presided over an economy where we’ve lost 1.6 million jobs. The first president in 72 years to lose jobs.
Kerry misled when he claimed the economy has lost 1.6 million jobs under Bush. It is true that figures released earlier in the day show the economy is still down by 1.6 million private sector jobs since Bush took office, but the drop in total payroll employment — including teachers, firemen, policemen and other federal, state and local government employees — is down by much less than that — 821,000. Furthermore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced, with the release of the latest figures, that its yearly “benchmark” revision would add an estimated 236,000 payroll jobs to the total when made final next February. That means the best current estimate is that 585,000 jobs have been lost under Bush, about one-third of the number Kerry stated.
Kerry may turn out to be correct when he said Bush would be “the first president in 72 years to lose jobs.” Payroll employment has been growing at roughly 100,000 jobs per month for the past four months, and there are only four months to go — October, November, December and January — until the end of Bush’s term in January, 2005. (The number that will actually go into the economic history books won’t be known until February 2006, when the BLS publishes its final benchmark revisions of 2004 data.)
One-third. “That means the best current estimate is that 585,000 jobs have been lost under Bush, about one-third of the number Kerry stated.” 585,000—and that’s an estimate. We won’t know for sure until February of 2006. Kerry’s team found a number they like to use, problem is that it’s the wrong number.
Here’s another wrong number: 13. That’s the number of times John Kerry said “I have a plan,” but then offered no specifics. In his convention speech and in two debates, Kerry has directed people to johnkerry.com to view and download the plan, but has not offered any substance around what that plan might be. This leaves one wondering whether the Senator actually knows the details of “his” plan. He must not have been copied on the memo from Carville and Begala once they were done revising it.
Last night’s debate did not go the way John Kerry wanted it to go, that much is certain. Even with the town meeting style and the softball questions, he still couldn’t manage to take control. His campaign will say he put on a great performance and notched a victory, but that’s just spin. The President clearly had the better night and managed to put the Senator in his place several times.
The President was strong from his opening statements, in his responses, and all the way through to his closing statement. It was the George W. Bush we wanted to see in the first debate. He needs to be just as good for the final meeting with Senator Kerry.
The third debate happens this coming Wednesday, October 13, from the grounds of Arizona State University in Tempe, AZ. Forget the fact that these “debates” are not really debates at all. You might want to pop some corn for this next one, because the tension between these two will be well worth the price of admission.
Kerry calls Bush a “skillful debater” and Bush calls Kerry a “great closer.” We’ll see which one of them is right on Wednesday.
William Smith
ConservativeBlogger.com
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