Round at the Ends, High in the Middle…

Birthplace of Professional Football and location of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Home to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
The state where the American Federation of Labor was founded.
Location of the first professional baseball franchise, the Cincinnati Reds.
Home state of the Wright Brothers and Neil Armstrong.
The place where chewing gum was patented.
Believe me when I tell you that it is no small coincidence that the Vice Presidential debate was held in the state of Ohio. To many across this nation, Ohio has become the true heartland of this nation. This is also true in the political sense since no Republican has ever won the Presidency without first winning the Buckeye State. It may be a cliché at this point, but the statement is 100% true.
In 2000, then Texas Governor George W. Bush received 50% of the Ohio vote, beating Vice President Al Gore by four points and winning the 20 electoral votes. This time around, however, things seem to be a bit closer.
Both Bush and Kerry seem to be spending a lot of time in Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida and fifteen other states trying to best the other guy and win the Presidency. Eighteen states? That’s it? The election is hinging on eighteen states? Yep. You bet it is.
“But what about the national polls that say (Bush/Kerry) only has a 2 point lead?”
Well, that’s the problem…it’s a national poll. That would be great if electoral votes were assigned on a national basis, but they’re not. As we saw demonstrated four years ago, a candidate can win a majority of the popular vote and still not win the Electoral College. The Electors are assigned based on who wins the state contest.
Put simply, there is no national election for the Presidency. There are fifty state elections to cast votes in the Electoral College. I heard this idea recently on the radio, and it’s taken until now to fully resonate with me.
It’s right on the money though. It all goes back to Civics 101 and the fundamental principle that the American people do not elect the President. The Electoral College does.
National polls are great, but they really don’t tell you anything other than popularity–and I don’t even think they’re the best indicator of that. (A candidate’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are a far better benchmark, in my opinion.)
We could go back to 2000 and Bush v. Gore, but I don’t think that’s even the best example. To see a really prime example, we should look at 1992. That year, there was a three-way race for the Presidency: George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Ross Perot.

So combined, Bush and Perot combined for 58,843,408 votes–a majority of the votes cast that year–and Clinton won the Presidency. More people voted against him than voted for him. Why did he win? Because he won more state contests and had more delegates assigned to him.
Bill Clinton was behind in the popular vote by 13,935,154. (While Clinton did not lose the popular vote contest, he clearly did not receive a majority of the votes cast in that election.) In 2000, George W. Bush was behind by 543,895 ballots and did lose the popular vote. Did either winner “steal” election? No. They both won fairly in the type of election the Founding Fathers of this nation intended.
This is why these eighteen states have such a magnifying glass on them right now—and why Ohio is absolutely crucial for George W. Bush to win re-election. This is why national polls of likely voters really don’t tell you a thing.
So, let’s look at Ohio since it is that important. A current average in polls shows Bush with a 1.6% edge over Senator Kerry. Looking at the historical data, two surveys taken shortly after the first debate give Kerry a slight lead, but six weeks worth of data show the President leading most of those polls. Yes, Ohio has lost 237,000 jobs since 2001–and this is not something the President takes lightly. There is a clear base of support for George W. Bush in Ohio and the data does give us reason to be hopeful that he can get those Electoral Votes.
Eighteen battleground states–and any one of them could propel either candidate to victory. If 2000 taught us anything it certainly taught us that. George W. Bush knows history and knows that Ohio is “must-win” territory if he wants a second term.
National polls are nice for newspapers and the cable news channels, but they don’t give us a true pulse of the electorate. If the adage of “as New Hampshire votes, so votes the Nation” is true during the primaries, it must also be true for this election that the Heartland of America is the key to the White House.
William Smith
ConservativeBlogger.com